106 Million New Middle-Class Consumers Set to Add US $2T to Global Spending in 2025, Says World Data Lab

Vienna, Austria, 15 May 2025, 

World Data Lab (WDL) has released its latest World Consumer Outlook and projects that the consumer boom is cooling. Only 106 million people are expected to join the global middle class, down from last year’s 116 million. WDL now projects that global consumer spending will only grow by US$ 2trillion, a decline of $1 trillion dollars below the January forecast. The stronger dollar, softer real growth and lower inflation have jointly shaved a percentage point off next year’s expansion, turning what looked like a break-out year into one of cautious accumulation.

Four of the world’s leading economists join World Data Lab for a live Chief Economist Roundtable that maps the next 18 months of global consumer demand. Drawing on proprietary forecasts and the latest country-level data, the session will examine how shifting geopolitics, ageing populations, and widening income asymmetries are reshaping the US $60 trillion consumer economy.

The panel features Dr Homi Kharas, Co-Founder of World Data Lab and Senior Fellow at Brookings; Anu Madgavkar, Partner at McKinsey Global Institute; Dr Indermit Gill, Chief Economist of the World Bank Group; and Dr Alexander Boersch, Chief Economist at Deloitte. Together they will weigh upside and downside scenarios for 2025, including a still-positive but slower increment of roughly US $2 trillion in household expenditure.

“Global momentum is cooling, not collapsing,” notes Homi Kharas, Co-Founder of World Data Lab. The bigger story is where the risk lies: a protracted trade clash could carve the deepest cuts out of U.S. wallets, while stable trade and investment could hand European consumers a half-trillion-dollar upside. The question for policymakers and firms is no longer whether spending will grow, but who captures the gains, and who gets left behind.”

Fresh modelling by World Data Lab shows that nearly half of the 2025 spending uplift will originate in the United States and much of it will come from consumers aged 45 and over. Yet regional fault-lines remain. Asia–Pacific’s forecast has been shaved by almost US $500 billion, largely on weaker exchange rates and softer real-income gains, while European households could unlock US 0.5 trillion in pent-up demand if structural reforms accelerate.

The roundtable will also explore: transport, industry, and energy now account for the steepest forecast downgrades, whereas health and digital services remain bright spots.

Watch Live & Participate

Accredited journalists and industry professionals may register for a complimentary virtual pass https://marketing.worlddatalab.com/wco-webinar. A recording and slide deck will be distributed to registered media immediately after the event.

About World Data Lab

World Data Lab uses state-of-the-art data science methodologies to model and forecast consumer trends, category spending, demographic shifts, and cities. Our data, through our platform World Data Pro, is relied upon by leading international businesses and organizations for data-driven decision-making

Media Contact
Anne Mason
Senior Communications and Marketing manager, World Data Lab
anne.mason@worlddatalab.com