In brief: Even after the 2026 oil price shock, the world will add 113 million new consumers and $2.9 trillion in new spending in 2026, with 8 of every 10 of those consumers in Asia. The shock trims growth in the near term, 2026 loses roughly 6 million consumers and $145 billion relative to the pre-war forecast, but World Data Lab projects that the gap will close by 2027. The bigger story is structural: growth is splitting into two consumer worlds, with advanced economies premiumizing while emerging Asia and Africa continue to add mass-market consumers.
The world will add about 113 million new consumers in 2026 under World Data Lab's baseline scenario, generating roughly $2.9 trillion in new global spending. About 8 out of every 10 of those consumers are in Asia.
This continues a long-running pattern: the world has added roughly 110 million new consumers every year, and that holds in both 2026 and 2027. The only recent exception was 2021, when the COVID-19 shock briefly pushed net additions negative.
World Data Lab defines a person as entering the consumer class (or middle class) when they cross a spending threshold of $13 per day, measured in 2021 purchasing power parity (PPP) dollars. All spending figures in the outlook are expressed in PPP terms to compare living standards across countries.
This threshold is the basis for counting how many people “join the consumer class” each year and for the scenario comparisons below.
Asia dominates new consumer growth in 2026:
Together, India and China account for 69 million people, 61% of all new consumers in 2026.
Not much, historically. Through a decade of shocks, global consumer expenditure has kept climbing:
Spending rose in every one of these periods. A defining shift arrives around 2027, when emerging Asia's total consumer expenditure overtakes that of advanced economies for the first time.
The oil shock trimmed near-term growth but did not reverse it. Compared with World Data Lab's pre-war forecast:
| Period | New consumers | vs pre-war | New spending | vs pre-war |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 → 2026 | +113M | −6M | +$2.9T | −$145B |
| 2026 → 2027 | +123M | +1.6M | +$3.2T | +$11B |
In short, 2026 lost about 6 million consumers and $145 billion, but 2027 closes the gap and returns growth to the pre-war path.
Many emerging markets were revised upward, while several advanced economies were revised down. The largest expenditure revisions versus the pre-war forecast (2026, USD billions PPP):
Upward revisions
Downward revisions
The headline: the EU outlook was cut by about $24 billion, while India gained roughly $12 billion.
Through prices, very unevenly. In the US city-average CPI for April 2026, headline inflation was +3.8%, but energy and travel ran far hotter:
Gasoline and airfares were running at 7–8× headline inflation, while some categories, such as limited-service meals and vending-machine food, remained below it. Globally, inflation rose almost everywhere versus the pre-war baseline, with Argentina and Turkey highest. Currency moves also diverged: Brazil (+11.8%) and Australia (+8%) appreciated against the dollar between January and April 2026, while Argentina (−6%) and Japan (−4.5%) depreciated.
World Data Lab models three paths for 2027, defined by oil prices:
| Scenario | Oil price | 2027 global spending | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | $70–80 / barrel | $101.3T | Shock fades; demand mostly recovers |
| Moderate | $90 / barrel | $100.3T | Lingering inflation; growth slows |
| Severe | $120+ / barrel | $99.1T | Sustained energy crisis; trade fragments |
The scenarios differ by roughly $2 trillion, about the size of Italy's economy. In the severe scenario, only 72 million people reach the middle class in 2026 versus 113M in the baseline, a 36% drop, effectively keeping ~40 million people from entering the consumer class.
That 40M shortfall reshapes the population pyramid (severe minus baseline, 2026): +40M more people stuck below the middle class (vulnerable & poor), −33M in the middle class, and −7M among the rich.
By country, India absorbs the largest loss: a severe shock would hold back 11.7 million Indians from the consumer class, almost twice China's 6.1 million. The rest of the top 10: Indonesia (−2M), Brazil (−1.7M), Pakistan (−1.47M), Bangladesh (−1.4M), Iran (−1M), Philippines (−1M), Vietnam (−0.9M), and Mexico (−0.9M).
By generation, the pain splits two ways:
The countries hit hardest tend to have younger, faster-growing consumer bases.
The outlook's third chapter, a joint analysis with NielsenIQ, argues the global retail map is splitting into two playbooks for 2026–2036:
The retail implication: value-and-scale strategies win in emerging markets; premiumization wins in mature ones.
Data source: World Data Lab, World Consumer Outlook #10 — WDP Spending, 2021 PPP, current baseline and severe scenarios (2025–2027), with joint analysis by NielsenIQ. Webinar speakers: Homi Kharas (Co-Founder & Chief Economist, World Data Lab), Indermit Gill (Chief Economist & SVP, Development Economics, World Bank Group), Anu Madgavkar (Partner, McKinsey Global Institute), Wolfgang Fengler (Co-Founder & CEO, World Data Lab), Reshma Sheoraj (SVP Strategic Engagements, World Data Lab), and Thomas Bauer (COO, World Data Lab).