How to turn a generation at risk into a workforce of the future

 

Africa is entering a defining decade for its youth. According to World Data Lab, between 2020 and 2030 the continent’s youth population — those aged 15-35 — is projected to grow by 132-million, the largest increase in its history. While much of the world faces ageing populations and shrinking labour forces, Africa’s youth numbers continue to surge. This “youth bulge” could become Africa’s greatest demographic dividend if it is matched by growth in productive, decent work.

 

The World Data Lab’s Africa Youth Employment Clock shows that in 2025 Africa’s youth population will reach 532-million, of whom 293-million are employed, a higher employment rate than the global average. Yet this headline figure hides a stark reality: nearly 252-million young Africans work in low-paying, informal agricultural jobs. Even more concerning, 95-million young workers live in extreme poverty, earning less than $2.15 a day. Gender disparities compound the problem; about 96-million African youth are inactive, and of this group about 66-million are young women not participating in the economy.

 

 

Within this continental context, South Africa faces one of the toughest youth labour market challenges. The country’s youth population stands at 21.8-million. Only 7-million are employed — an employment share of just 32.5%, far below the African average. In contrast, 6.8-million South African youth are students, a slightly higher share than across Africa. But South Africa also has 8.1-million young people who are not in employment, education or training — one of the highest proportions globally.

Unemployment is the key driver of this crisis. About 3.7-million young South Africans are actively seeking work but cannot find it — roughly three times the continental average. Another 4.4-million are inactive, neither studying nor searching for employment.

The gender gap is striking. Among youth aged 15–35, about 5.9-million men are employed, compared to 2.9-million women. Men dominate sectors such as industry (78% male) and agriculture (71% male), while services are more balanced, with near parity between men and women.

 

 

There are bright spots. South Africa has one of the most formalised labour markets in Africa, with more than 3.8-million formally employed young people — second only to Lesotho. Educational attainment is also high: nearly all South African youth (98%) have completed primary school. Moreover, about 17.7-million live in households earning more than $3.20 per day (in 2017 purchasing power parity terms), one of the highest shares on the continent.

But these strengths exist alongside a structural weakness. South Africa’s informal sector is unusually small for an African economy, constrained by barriers such as limited credit access, high crime rates, spatial barriers and local government regulatory hurdles. As a result, many young people who cannot find formal jobs remain excluded from the labour market entirely.

 

 

Between 2015 and 2025 youth employment in South Africa’s industrial sector is estimated to have fallen by 25%. In contrast, countries such as Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Senegal and Nigeria have seen industrial youth employment double or even triple over the same period. Today, about 5-million young South Africans work in services — about 71% of total youth employment — making the country one of Africa’s most service-orientated economies. Interestingly, youth employment in agriculture has grown by 26%, even as it declines in other upper-middle-income African countries such as Mauritius and Egypt.

Across Africa, the services sector is projected to overtake agriculture as the main source of youth jobs by 2030. Yet the continent faces a critical skills deficit. Fewer than 53-million young Africans — less than one in 10 — have completed tertiary education. Among those who have, nearly three-quarters work in services.

In South Africa we are also seeing the rising spectre of graduate unemployment, for example, the unemployment rate for those with a higher education degree is estimated at 10% and for technical and vocational education and training (TVET) graduates an eye-watering 21.5%.

Digital skills are emerging as a key differentiator: only about 90-million African youth possess basic digital literacy, compared to about 38% of young people in the rest of the world. In some countries, like Chad and Mozambique, the rate is as low as 1%. Southern and North Africa lead in this area, but overall the continent remains far behind.

 

 

To harness Africa’s demographic wave — and to tackle South Africa’s youth unemployment crisis — policymakers must act decisively. The data suggests a clear agenda: align education and digital skills with the evolving structure of labour markets. Africa’s future jobs will be in services, but they will demand higher skills, particularly in digital and technical fields.

For South Africa this means complementing its formal job creation policies with targeted efforts to include youth who are currently locked out of both the formal and informal economy. Wage subsidies, entrepreneurship financing and investment in digital infrastructure can help bridge this divide — all alongside an attempt to reduce barriers to informal sector activity.

Africa’s youth boom can either fuel prosperity or deepen exclusion. The outcome will depend on whether the continent — and South Africa in particular — can transform demographic potential into inclusive economic opportunity.