Trendlines, Not Headlines: Lessons in Data from the First Half of 2025

From an interview with Wolfgang Fengler, CEO World Data Lab

Over the past two quarters, you’ve been everywhere, events, seminars, boardrooms. What’s the single lesson that’s stuck with you most from these experiences?

The main takeaway is how essential reliable and timely data has become. I often see organisations neglect their data, much like ignoring your health, and even accurate data loses value if it’s outdated. World Data Lab’s job is to “now-cast to forecast,” producing category-specific insights that stay current as markets shift.

This focus has put us on major stages. At Mastercard’s flagship event in Washington, for example, we spoke alongside CEOs and other opinion leaders. Commercially, we closed new agreements with two large tech companies, deepened our work with L’Oréal, and signed a three-year partnership with the Mastercard Foundation that strengthens our presence in Africa.

Overall, Q1 and Q2 have been strong for World Data Lab, solid results despite a turbulent global economy.

At NACS, GIGS, and a recent automotive forum you met very different audiences, each sharing their own challenges. Looking ahead to Q3 and Q4, what opportunities or directions would you highlight for these companies?

First, focus on trendlines, not headlines. Headlines can distract; the long-term trends are often predictable. One key trendline we track closely is the growth of the global middle class: the world adds roughly one billion middle-class consumers every nine years, 2006, 2015, 2024, and next in 2033. Companies should already be planning for that 2033 surge.

The next step is to ask who those consumers are and what they buy beyond basic goods. Age profiles vary widely: at a recent automotive event we noted the average driver is nearly 60 in Germany but in their 30s in China. That single contrast shows just how important it is for brands to tailor their approach to different markets.

We help clients spot missed markets and hidden pools of demand, especially in emerging markets in Asia where FMCG firms often underestimate their potential. Demographic shifts, like ageing populations, also change product preferences: older consumers may favour e-bikes over standard bikes, but only if they can afford them. The companies that align their portfolios with these demographic and income shifts will be best positioned for the second half of the year and beyond.

You finished your NACS talk by introducing the phrase “trendlines, not headlines.” Can you unpack that idea and explain why it matters for businesses and policymakers?

Headlines change daily; trendlines unfold over decades. The two don’t always point in the same direction. In several large economies the long-run trendlines are positive because of investments made 20–30 years ago. Think of putting girls into education: the benefit isn’t visible tomorrow, but it is tangible ten years on. We see that in much of Asia and Latin America, although parts of Africa still show a flat line.

At World Data Lab we don’t produce a single “nice” line; we generate millions of trendlines because they diverge sharply by country, sector, and demographic group. Take Europe: some Central European countries face shrinking workforces, raising questions about how to finance social protection. Or look at alcohol: is beer a bigger market than wine? The answer depends on which year, which country, and which age group you examine.

The lesson is simple: short-term noise can hide long-term direction. By focusing on granular trendlines, companies and governments can spot where to allocate resources, whether that means identifying new consumer segments, planning for labour shortages, or understanding shifts in product demand. Trendlines, not headlines, reveal where the real opportunities, and risks will be.

Having recently met with major leaders in the auto industry, what questions or concerns did they raise that shaped your thinking about consumer behaviour and how World Data Lab’s data can help?

Large manufacturers face decisions, building a factory, staffing a new market, that can’t be reversed quickly. The executives I spoke with stressed how critical it is to understand who can genuinely afford a premium vehicle before committing that level of capital. Price is only one filter; income brackets, age profiles, and crucially, location matter just as much.

That’s where our data adds value. Using our 6,000-cities database we can pinpoint, city by city, the next cohorts of consumers whose incomes place them firmly in the premium-car segment. It’s the same question Rolls-Royce might ask: “Who are the next thousand buyers for a €300,000 car?” Identifying those specific pockets of demand, rather than making broad, country-level guesses, helps automakers calibrate production, marketing, and investment with far less risk.

In short, they underscored the need for precise, granular demand forecasting. Our role is to deliver it, so they can place big, long-term bets with greater confidence.

From retailers at NACS to tech leaders at GIGS, what common trend is accelerating across sectors, and what should companies start doing now to stay ahead?

The unifying theme is better data, using it to match supply more precisely to real, local demand. Whether you sell shampoo, smartphones, or premium cars, two actions matter most:

1. Know which age groups you are targeting. Age profiles influence everything from product features to price points, and they vary sharply by market.
   
   
2. Pinpoint where those consumers actually shop. Retail is intensely geographic: convenience-store traffic differs by neighbourhood, just as luxury goods demand differs by city district. Traditional data covers loyalty-card holders and formal stores, but in many emerging markets informal channels dominate. Without that “full-view” data, companies risk over-producing or stocking the wrong products in the wrong places.

World Data Lab helps fill that gap by combining formal and informal channel data, so firms can reduce idle inventory, adjust production in near-real time, and capture demand that others miss.

We’ve just released World Consumer Outlook #7. What were the key takeaways?

I’m proud that we had such a distinguished panel, including World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill. The discussion centred on how recent short-term economic shocks and the rebound in equity markets are filtering through to consumer demand.

Our updated modelling shows that every major economy has seen a downgrade in the expected expansion of its consumer class. For 2025 we now project about 106 million people will join the global middle class, down from the 115 million we anticipated earlier in the year. While still substantial, the growth is slower and more uneven than before:

• Most vulnerable: the United States and Mexico, which appear more exposed to near-term volatility.
  
  
• Bright spots: India accounts for the lion’s share of new consumers, with smaller but notable contributions from parts of Asia and Egypt.

The message is clear: even in a turbulent environment, opportunity hasn’t vanished, it has become more concentrated and requires sharper focus. Reliable, easy-to-use data is the best safeguard against being caught off-guard by these shifting trendlines.

Looking back on Q1 and Q2, what single piece of advice would you give our partners and prospective clients for the rest of the year?

Use data to predict demand in advance, don’t be surprised by it. For nearly any product you can model the income threshold at which purchase takes off: a laptop might trigger at one dollar-per-day higher income, a soft drink at far less, a car at much more. The key is then to know how many people sit in that income bracket in each country and how fast that group is growing. With the right proxies you can time product launches, scale production, or enter new markets with far greater confidence, and that’s exactly the kind of modelling we provide at World Data Lab.