World Data Lab unveils new World Consumer Outlook #7 findings ahead of World Retail Congress

Vienna / London World Data Lab today released headline insights from World Consumer Outlook #7 (Chief Economist Roundtable Consumer Spending in an Uncertain World), its quarterly deep dive into global spending trends and demographic change. The latest edition tracks how three macro-economic scenarios, current path, global setbacks, and reforms-driven recovery, will reshape purchasing power across the United States and other major economies through to 2030.

Key takeaways include:

• US consumer spending could top USD 19 trillion by 2030 in the base case, yet remains vulnerable to downside shocks. Under a “global setbacks” scenario, spending would finish the decade roughly one trillion dollars lower.
  
  
• Even in a mild downturn, America’s middle class grows while the richest cohort contracts: by 2026 the middle class could expand by +5 million people, while the number of rich households falls by -5.7 million compared with baseline projections.
  
  
• Similar divergences appear across Europe and Asia, underscoring the need for retailers to stress-test strategies against multiple demand curves.

The full WCO #7 report examines 185 countries, combining IMF World Economic Outlook data with WDL’s proprietary consumer-class modelling.

Jonathan Haigh, VP Product, Technology & Insight at World Data Lab, commented:
“Retail is entering an era where yesterday’s ‘average consumer’ no longer exists. Scenario-based planning helps leaders understand whether they are serving tomorrow’s growth segments, or yesterday’s.”

Jonathan Haigh will attend World Retail Congress (13-14 May 2025, Hilton Park Lane, London) and welcomes conversations on how retailers and brands can apply WDL’s demand forecasts to pricing, assortment, and location strategy.

To arrange a meeting or request the full WCO #7 deck, please contact anne.mason@worlddatalab.com.

About World Data Lab

World Data Lab models future consumer spending across more than 400 categories. Using state-of-the-art, peer reviewed data science we forecast consumer trends, category spending dynamics and demographic shifts all down to city level for more than 185 countries. Our data, through our platform World Data Pro, is relied upon by leading international businesses, such as L’Oreal, Uber and Coke, and organizations, including World Bank and the Mastercard Foundation, for data-driven decision-making.