Paris 2024: Our Model Predicts the Gold Medal Table

On Friday, July 26, the Paris 2024 Olympics will kick off with an Opening Ceremony on the Seine River. Thirty-five venues will host the 16 days of competition.

This year, 206 countries will compete for 329 gold medals. But how will the table shape up? 

In theory, as a country’s consumers spend more on sports, they should perform better in the Olympics compared to when they were spending less, and therefore win more gold medals. We put this theory to the test for the Tokyo 2020 Olympics and our projections were around one gold medal off the official count. 

So ahead of the Paris 2024 games, World Data Lab has used data on projected consumer spending on sporting goods and services, combined with the host country’s influence, to predict this year’s gold medal standings. 

 Here are ten takeaways from our projections:

USA – 49 Gold Medals ($112 billion consumer sports services spending in 2024

Team USA is set to achieve its most successful Olympics on foreign soil, surpassing the 48 gold medals won in London 2012. With stars like Noah Lyles (track), Simone Biles (gymnastics), and Katie Ledecky (swim), expect a dominant performance. This should come to no surprise as the US spends more on sports services than the other top 9 countries combined. 

China – 37 Gold Medals ($27 billion consumer sports services spending in 2024)

China aims to challenge the US for the top spot, but projections indicate that they will fall short. Will China secure the number two spot for the third time in the last four Olympics? Their sports services spending suggests they have a good chance of securing a top 2 spot with a projected spending of $27 billion in 2024.

Great Britain – 26 Gold Medals ($16 billion consumer sports services spending in 2024)

Team Great Britain expects another successful Olympics, aiming for their fourth consecutive 20+ gold medal campaign since hosting in 2012. Our model agrees! With just a tenth of the spending of the US, Great Britain is able to get their gold medals at a discount.

France – 21 Gold Medals ($9 billion consumer sports services spending in 2024)

As hosts, France aims to prove their Olympic prowess. They haven’t been in the top 5 for 76 years, but they’re looking to surpass 20 gold medals for the first time since 1900. Even though their consumer spending for sports services is relatively low, their part as hosts and past government investment is likely to give them a considerable boost in the medals table. 

Germany – 15 Gold Medals ($10 billion consumer sports services spending in 2024)

After a disappointing Tokyo 2020, where Germany fell to 9th on the medal table, they aim to return to familiar territory with a 5th place finish. Germany has finished 5th in three Olympics this century. Their sizable spending on sports services is an indication that Germany is optimistic about a successful Olympics.

Japan – 15 Gold Medals ($5.4 billion consumer sports services spending in 2024)

Japan, the big winners of the 2020 Olympics, are predicted to see a drop in their gold medal count, returning to pre-Tokyo 2020 levels. However, with only around half the spending of Germany, Japan is still posed to outperform their consumer investment and attain double digit gold medals.

Australia – 13 Gold Medals ($5.0 billion consumer sports services spending in 2024)

Australia, known for its swimming prowess, aims to continue their success from Tokyo 2020. However, predictions suggest they will win four fewer gold medals this year. Their performance will largely depend on their swimmers’ ability to compete with Team USA.

South Korea – 11 Gold Medals ($4.0 billion consumer sports services spending in 2024)

As the one newcomer in this year’s top 10, South Korea are already off to a blazing start, with Lim Si-hyeon, South Korean archer, setting the first world record of the Paris 2024 Olympics. Can South Korea carry this momentum through the games and achieve a top 10 finish? Their spending suggests they have the ability to keep up with the likes of Australia and Japan.

Italy – 10 Gold Medals ($3.1 billion consumer sports services spending in 2024)

Italy, the 6th winningest nation in the olympics, always seems to be a wildcard in where they will get their medals, the most surprising in recent years being Marcell Jacobs 100m Gold in Tokyo 2020. History has shown that Italy can win big, even on less spending than some of it’s regional competitors, Germany and France.

Netherlands – 9 Gold Medals ($2.5 billion consumer sports services spending in 2024)

Netherlands, the smallest country among the top 10, consistently punches above their weight. Specializing in cycling, our model sees Netherlands almost matching their gold medal tally from Tokyo 2020. 

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